A 2024 Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article claims Google is on its way to losing the lead in the search advertising space. For the first time, the giant search engine is expected to hold less than 50% of the market share in search advertisements by 2025.
It is important to investigate these statistics before accepting them as truth. The best way to get to the facts is to examine the claims in-depth and question their validity.
WSJ’s Reasons for Google’s Decline
The journal claimed that other players were taking away some of Google’s search advertising revenue, and that search was shrinking a bit in the overall digital market. However, a report by the Winterberry Group indicates that search had experienced a 12.9% growth.
Other possible reasons for declining search advertising figures for Google include:
- Development of AI search engines – ChatGPT, Perplexity, and other AI search engines are suspected of attracting more users from Google.
- TikTok search – Apparently, the app’s searching capabilities and increasing popularity are threatening Google’s superiority.
- Antitrust – An ongoing monopoly trial against Google is turning more people against it.
Investigating the Data
Unfortunately, most of the available data does not support the WSJ claims. While the use of AI-based search platforms and TikTok is on the rise, it is far from creating a serious threat to Google’s market share dominance.
The argument is supported by several key information pieces, including the growth of search advertising (keyword bidding) across Google, Bing, and other search platforms. Perplexity and other AI-based platforms will eventually enter this space, but they are still in their early stages.
While many LinkedIn experts in the B2B, software, and tech worlds claim that more Google users are switching to AI search engines, the stats show a different case. Research shows that 88% of people in the United States still use traditional search engines without any AI enhancements. Google’s stock also took a hit in 2024, just like many other major tech and S&P stocks.
A panel convened with the help of Datos, a clickstream provider, revealed that 17% of people were using AI along Google by August 2024. The average Google user was utilizing the platform at least 200 times a month, which is an increase from the past year. These data indicate that Google’s search advertising venture should be experiencing growth and not a decline.
TikTok is Not a Major Threat, Yet
TikTok’s search capabilities are increasing, but are far behind those of Google. Further, primary users of the platform use it for entertainment purposes and not for searching queries as they do with traditional search engines.
Platforms such as Walmart, eBay, and DuckDuckGo provide stronger growth numbers than TikTok’s. However, none are a serious threat in the near future to Google’s dominance.
The WSJ Claim
WSJ’s prediction stems from data released by eMarketer in October 2024. While the projection is technically accurate it is not due to increasing competition from TikTok or AI search engines. Instead, the real competition should be from platforms like Walmart, Instacart, and Amazon.
Amazon, for example, has been a long-time player in search advertising. The platform is realizing the fastest percentage growth, but Google is still growing in dollar terms.
Walmart, Instacart, Apple, Hulu, Spotify, and other companies are relatively new entrants in the search advertising ecosystem. These platforms use keyword-based searches which diversifies the market further.
Overall
- Investigating the data reveals that Google’s market share is not under immediate threat.
- The real competition in the search advertising space is from companies like Instacart, Walmart, and Amazon, not from AI engines or TikTok as claimed by WSJ.
- It is vital to look beyond sensational headlines and dive deeper into the data to understand the landscape and possible futures.
Conclusion
The WSJ argument that Google is about to lose its search advertising dominance to AI search engines and TikTok is not true. The real threat is from other companies that have not been provided coverage.
Google will continue to grow its revenue and remain a dominant force in search advertising for the foreseeable future.
An SEO expert who likes to help hobby bloggers and small businesses grow their digital presence on search engines like Google.
I have worked for a variety of companies and most prominent of them being an Australian tech startup called Simple Technology Corporation.